17 teams still involved in the third ranked teams calculations

Currently, there are still three direct spots available via the second places in groups 1, 4 and 7, with the final card being completed by four tickets awarded to the best four teams that will finish in the third place. There is a caveat, though, as the results against the teams that finish fourth in the group do not count for this ranking.

While many teams have already taken their chances, the current rankings across the eight groups make it entirely possible that changes could happen on Sunday, provided certain results take place.

What happened in the previous editions of the EHF EURO Qualifiers?

The current system was introduced before the EHF EURO 2020 Qualifiers, when the competition was expanded to 24 teams. For the EHF EURO 2020 Qualifiers, each of the four teams that earned safe passage to the final tournament via this route earned at least two points, with Bosnia Herzegovina boasting a four-point tally, followed by Serbia, with three points, then the Netherlands and Ukraine with two points each.

In the EHF EURO 2022 Qualifiers, Bosnia Herzegovina, Poland and Lithuania had two points each, while Ukraine made it through with one point, as the four others teams finished with zero points and were eliminated.

What is the situation now?

With one game to go, only three sides have two points – Faroe Islands, Greece and Bosnia Herzegovina – with five others having zero points in this ranking, separated by goal difference.

It could well go to goal difference for the final place that qualifies for the EHF EURO 2024 and Italy are currently sitting on it, with a -20 goal difference, followed by Estonia (-22), Georgia (-25), Türkiye (-28) and Slovakia (-28).

How does the last round look for these teams?

17 teams can mathematically finish on the third place with one round to go, so everything is still wide open in all but one group, with Italy certain of finishing third in group 8, where Latvia are last, with 0 points and Poland have secured the second place, with six points and the tiebreaker against Italy.

In group 1, North Macedonia and Türkiye face off in Skopje, after Kiril Lazarov’s side won by a landslide in the first leg, 36:27. A win by ten goals or more for Türkiye would see them through in second place, and a win by fewer than ten goals would see Türkiye in third with two points in the third-placed teams ranking.

Slovakia and Finland can finish third in group 2, but they are currently on zero points, as they traded wins against each other. Slovakia, who play against Serbia and will finish third if Finland do not win more points than them against Norway, are in last place in the third-placed teams standings, with a -28 goal difference.

The situation is similar in group 3, where Estonia hold the third place, tied on points with Israel, but on -22 goal difference, as they will have to limit the damage as much as possible against Iceland, as they are just below the line right now, two goals behind Italy. Israel have a -37 goal difference, so they face a really uphill battle, even if they win against the Czech Republic.

Group 4 is one of the most balanced, with several scenarios in the offering. The Faroe Islands have a big chance to progress and could even go through in second place, provided they earn more points against Austria than Romania do. But Romania also have an ace up their sleeve, boasting their own two-point tally, with a win against the Faroe Islands at home. Ukraine can also seal a place in the final tournament, as they did in 2020, if they manage to win against Romania and Austria win against the Faroe Islands, provided other results go their way.

Group 5 is also poised to send its third team at the EHF EURO 2024, as Greece have a win against the Netherlands, before their meeting on Sunday, therefore they start with at least two points. If they win, they are directly through, and Netherlands are also keen to earn a spot, boasting a three-point tally. Croatia can also finish third if Greece beat the Netherlands and they lose against Belgium, but they have already qualified, as their five-point tally in this case is impossible to beat.

In group 6, Georgia need a miracle against the best attack in the competition, Hungary, to stand a chance, as they are currently out of contention, as do Slovakia – who play against Serbia – and Estonia – facing Iceland – in their last games, as only positive results would see them cling on by the skin of their teeth in the battle. Lithuania are also in with a chance, but they need to get at least one more point against Switzerland than Georgia against Hungary, in which case Lithuania would finished third in the group.

Bosnia Herzegovina are also well-placed to earn a place from this third-place ranking once again, as they cannot lose the third spot in the group, with the clash against Montenegro in Podgorica - the headliner of the last round in group 7 - being paramount for both teams, after Montenegro won, 35:26, in Bosnia in the first game between the two sides and therefore also boast a two-point tally.

Last, but not least, in group 8, Italy provided a huge challenge to Poland, losing by a narrow margin, 29:31, after leading by as many as four goals, and will need either a win against France or other results going their way to seal a place in the final tournament for the first time since 1998.