The probabilities of reaching the EHF FINAL4 Women 2025

There have been quarter-finals in the EHF Champions League since 2014/15 and they have never been as exciting as in the current season. In all four matches combined, the cumulative goal difference of five is the lowest ever seen. So, the race to the EHF FINAL4 Women is more thrilling than ever.

Similar to how the probabilities of who would reach the quarter-finals in the Machineseeker EHF Champions League were examined three weeks ago, this article outlines the probabilities of who will be on court in Budapest.

For this purpose, all data from the knockout stages played with first and second legs since 2014/15, when the knockout stage on the path to the EHF FINAL4 was introduced, was taken. 2019/20 was not considered, as that season was cancelled due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Matches that were not played and were awarded to one team were excluded, while games that were decided by the old away goals rule were counted as draws, because today they would be decided by a penalty shootout.

This resulted in a total of 57 matches with first and second legs, including this season’s play-off round — a small sample size but one that can still give some insight. 

To derive predictions for the current quarter-final round, this data was entered into a logistic regression. A logistic regression is a statistical model used to predict probabilities for two possible outcomes — in this case whether the respective team will make it to the EHF FINAL4 Women 2025 or not. The goal difference from the first leg and the difference in points per game from the group phase, as a simple estimate of each team’s general strength, were used as predictors.

A 28.0 per cent chance that all favourites win

The model sees CSM Bucuresti versus Team Esbjerg as the most open quarter-final. Despite Henny Reistad’s outstanding performance, who tied the season record of 11 field goals in a game, the Romanian side, led by Crina Pintea with 10 goals from 11 attempts, won the first leg at home by one goal.

However, due to the home advantage in the second leg and because they are considered to be slightly stronger, the model sees Esbjerg progressing directly in 49.9 per cent of scenarios. Superstar Cristina Neagu has a 46.1 per cent chance of crowning her career with one last appearance in the EHF FINAL4, while, according to the model, the probability of this tie ending in a penalty shootout is at 4.0 per cent.

Another very open fixture is that between Odense Håndbold against FTC-Rail Cargo Hungaria, who drew 27:27 in the first leg. However, the model only expects another draw in 2.5 per cent of scenarios. As FTC are considered slightly stronger and now have the home advantage on their side, they are viewed by the model as the favourites to advance to the EHF FINAL4, at 66.7 per cent. Odense's chances are modelled at 30.8 per cent.

The model sees Brest Bretagne Handball against Metz Handball as almost decided. Metz won 29:26 in Brittany and therefore go into the second leg at home as clear favourites. Across the available data, 80.7 per cent of all teams that won the first match of a two-leg tie progressed. The model sees Metz with a 95.4 per cent chance of reaching the EHF FINAL4 2025. The probability that Brest will turn it around is just 3.7 per cent. The remaining 0.9 per cent points to a penalty shootout.

The last quarter-final is a rematch of last year's final between HB Ludwigsburg and Györi Audi ETO KC. In the first leg, Györ ultimately prevailed by one goal thanks to a penalty from Kristina Jörgensen as time expired. During the game, Jakob Vestergaard's team had many problems with the outstanding Sandra Toft, who saved 44.7 per cent of the shots on her goal — the 10th-best figure among all 149 goalkeepers who have faced 30 or more shots on goal in a game this season. Toft forced Ludwigsburg to their fourth-lowest shooting percentage this season, at 49.0 per cent. The lowest was 45.2 per cent in the previous round, also against Györ.

As Györ go into the second leg with a narrow advantage and are also generally regarded as the stronger team, the model sees their chance of reaching the EHF FINAL4 2025 at 88.2 per cent. In the available data, the home team in the first leg progressed after losing on their own court in only 8.6 per cent of cases. Combining two scenarios, the model sees an 11.9 per cent chance of Ludwigsburg beating Györ for the first time this season in what will be their fourth attempt: An 11.1 per cent chance of Ludwigsburg progressing with the necessary win in regular time and an 0.8 per cent chance of a penalty shootout with the German champions winning by one.

The most likely participants in the EHF FINAL4 2025 are therefore Esbjerg, FTC, Metz and Györ. However, based on the probabilities above, the probability of all four making it is only 28.0 per cent. So, there is more than enough room for a surprise.

More from data analyst Julian Rux can be found at Handballytics.de. There you can read his latest articles, in which he analyses all kinds of handball topics from new, data-based perspectives. You can also find him on Instagram, Bluesky, Threads and WhatsApp Channels.

Photos: Lau Nielsen; Raluca Malnasi; Olivier STEPHAN / BBH; Marko Wolf