Looking at the general numbers of the two teams that meet in Wednesday's Match of the Week, both are similar. Montpellier HB and HC Zagreb are both well above average in defence, while they are slightly below average in the attack. The French side ranks tenth in offence scoring 27.4 goals per 50 possessions and fifth in defence conceding 26.2. Zagreb are offensively on rank 13 scoring 26.2 goals, while they concede 26.2, the fourth fewest.
Using these statistics that are adjusted for possessions played is significantly more meaningful than just the raw number of goals (conceded) because it makes the teams actually comparable since the raw number of goals is not only influenced by efficiency, but also by the number of possessions (whether a team and their opponents play rather fast or slow). Since a game has roughly 50 possessions on average (actually there are 3.1 more this season), the values here are calculated on 50 possessions so that they roughly reflect those of a game.
It is therefore hardly surprising that in the 27:27 draw on Wednesday, both scored fewer goals than the competition-wide average of 29.5 goals per game. Especially adding in the fact that the Croatians are known for playing slowly. With an average of 50.8 possessions per game, they have the second slowest games and with 38.0 seconds per possession, the third longest own possessions.
It was more surprising that Montpellier, who on average have the sixth fastest possessions with 32.4 seconds per possession this season, had slightly longer possession than Zagreb in the first leg, with 36.7 compared to 33.9. That was the third fastest game for Zagreb this season, as well as the third slowest for the team from southern France.
A first leg of opposites
But this is just the beginning of the contrasts, in comparison to the current season, that the first leg has brought. There are several more.
Firstly, Zagreb have the most suspension minutes per game this season with 8.9, while Montpellier are fourth with 8.0. In the first leg, however, it was Patrice Canayer's team that tied the season record with 16 penalty minutes and now shares it with Zagreb and three other teams. The Croatians played just six minutes with one man less, their third lowest of the season.
Montpellier's one strength in defence is forcing their opponents to turnovers. At 9.8 per 50 possessions, they rank second, only slightly behind the 9.9 of THW Kiel, while Zagreb’s 8.2 are below average. In addition, Montpellier is the better team at not losing the ball themselves, with 8.9 turnovers per 50 possessions, while the Croatians rank fourth lowest with 10.0. However, on Wednesday Montpellier had more problems here with 10 turnovers, while Zagreb had 8.
The other defensive strength of Patrice Canayer's defence is blocking shots. They lead the competition in the share of blocked field attempts of their opponents with 4.8 per cent. Especially Karl Konan is largely responsible for this, as he leads the Machineseeker EHF Champions League with 1.0 blocks per game as well.
Zagreb rank slightly below average as they are blocking 2.9 per cent of their opponents’ field attempts this season. In fact, this was one of the few categories where the favourites did better, as Montpellier had 2.9 per cent of blocked shots (led by Konan with two blocks), while Zagreb had 1.0 per cent.
It's similar to the goalkeepers
In contrast, Zagreb's defensive strength is that they allow the lowest opponent shooting percentage in the Machineseeker EHF Champions League with 58.9 per cent. The gap between them and Montpellier, who are in fourth place with 60.6 per cent, is not yet large. It is clearer with the goalkeepers. Zagreb's goalkeepers have the second-best save percentage in the league after Barça with 31.4 per cent, while Montpellier are only 11th with 28.5 per cent.
All three goalkeepers who played for Zagreb this season have a save percentage that is higher than 30.0 per cent. But their most important goalkeeper is of course Matej Mandic (31.3 per cent), who faced way more than four times as many shots as their other goalies: Ante Grbavac (30.3 per cent) and Aljaz Panjtar (34.2 per cent).
Montpellier, by contrast, have a significant drop in their goalkeeper performance. Charles Bolzinger is just ahead of Matej Mandic in fifth place with 32.7 per cent among all 30 goalkeepers who have had at least 100 shots on goal. His teammate, Remi Desbonnet, on the other hand, is in third-last place with just 22.1 per cent.
Last Wednesday, both coaches relied on their first-choice goalkeepers and, indeed, Montpellier won the statistical category as well, despite being weaker throughout the season. Bolzinger (32.4 per cent) also outshone Mandic (28.6 per cent), while both Desbonnet (20.0 per cent) and Gabavac (22.2 per cent) were only able to provide temporary relief and could not provide any bigger impact from the bench.
What that means for the second leg
Of course, these findings make it difficult to predict the second leg at the FDI Stadium on Wednesday. However, in line with the statistical phenomenon of regression towards the mean, it is more likely that these were all exceptions last Wednesday and that everything will return to normal. In other words, Zagreb will play more slowly and have the goalkeeping on their side, while Montpellier will force more turnovers and have fewer suspension minutes.
It is also interesting to take a quick look at the home and away statistics, as Montpellier are slightly stronger at home while Zagreb have somewhat better statistics away. The French side manages to perform much better in attack in front of their own fans (28.9 goals per 50 possessions at home versus 25.4 away), while Zagreb even have the best away defence (24.4 goals conceded per 50 possessions).
What can definitely be deduced from the season so far and the first leg is that the focus will be on defence and both teams will go at it hard. At the same time, both teams are unlikely to focus on exhilarating tempo play, but rather on controlled and slowly built-up attacks. With the home advantage, the French are of course the slight favourites, but the numbers have shown that anything is possible.
More from data analyst Julian Rux can be found at Handballytics.de. There you can read his latest articles, in which he analyses all kinds of handball topics from new, data-based perspectives. You can also find him on Instagram, Facebook, X/Twitter, Threads and WhatsApp Channels.
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